Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:03:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
91 0x9178…4c75 other 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate17%17W / 84L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$7
politics 28% −$8
economics 8% −$2
culture 4% −$1
sports 4% +$34
tech 3% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 101 +3.1% -6.7% 17% 12% -9.5%
all 101 +3.1% -6.7% 17% 12% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 12% -9.5%
10% -15.7% 12% -18.1%
15% -23.8% 10% -26.0%
20% -31.3% 10% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses17 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)101 / 103
History coverage85d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 53¢ 54¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $161 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $327 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $278 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $74 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 02 $119 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $49 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $33 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 24 $296 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $249 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 19 $259 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $760 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 16 $544 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $899 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 14 $267 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $267 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $275 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $280 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 10 $271 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $548 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $260 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $262 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 06 $273 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 05 $267 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 03 $256 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $279 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $259 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? May 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 29 $282 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 28 $267 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 24 $282 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $282 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 18 $270 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $270 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 16 $277 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $289 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $559 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $266 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $919 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $7 4h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 24h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 26h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $60 44h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $161 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 12d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 12d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 13d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 14d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 15d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 15d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 17d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 17d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $33 18d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 18d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $74 22d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $33 25d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $33 25d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 25d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 26d
Will Solana reach $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $119 26d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 27d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 27d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $258 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.22 · official $62.22 (match) · 298 history records