Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:49:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
91 0x917a…2b0d other 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$161 (+23%) realized +$162 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%27W / 34L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$60
14 days+$125
30 days+$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$107
sports 5% +$39
tech 2% +$8
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +54.5% +39.8% 56% 56% +38.5%
≤30d 30 +25.5% +13.6% 50% 50% +21.5%
≤90d 31 +21.5% +9.9% 48% 48% +21.2%
all 61 +12.5% +1.8% 44% 43% +12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 43% +12.3%
10% -8.0% 41% +1.6%
15% -16.9% 38% -8.3%
20% -25.0% 30% -17.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$5 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$162
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses27 / 34
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)61 / 64
History coverage144d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $26 −$18 -70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 +$33 +324%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $12 +$7 +54%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$20 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$25 +82%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$8 +25%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 18 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $11 +$5 +47%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$10 -63%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$12 +48%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$6 +307%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -67%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -43%
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $20 −$3 -16%
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $25 −$2 -8%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Jun 13 $7 +$6 +86%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 56 million views on day 2 Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $5 +$10 +204%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $10 +$36 +357%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-13? Mar 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 12 $3 $0 -5%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $8 −$3 -42%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $4 +$5 +115%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-03-14? Mar 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 28 $14 +$12 +85%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? Feb 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-02-28? Feb 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will RB Leipzig vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? Feb 22 $3 +$13 +426%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $8 +$10 +122%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 39¢ $7 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 40¢ $9 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 88¢ $19 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $12 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $7 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $26 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 96¢ $55 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $23 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 11d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 64¢ $19 11d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 11d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 58¢ $10 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $15 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.72 · official $31.72 (match) · 125 history records