Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9180…417f crypto 264 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$109 (-4%) realized −$109 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate43%113W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$29
14 days+$29
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$157
other 11% +$13
sports 1% −$11
weather 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-36.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -45.6% -50.8% 29% 25% -3.3%
≤30d 195 -31.4% -37.9% 38% 29% -13.6%
≤90d 264 -29.7% -36.4% 43% 31% -15.5%
all 264 -29.7% -36.4% 43% 31% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.4% 31% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -42.5% 21% -23.6%
15% -48.1% 15% -31.0%
20% -53.2% 10% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses113 / 151
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)264 / 264
History coverage48d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 264 Trades
no open positions (113 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $198 +$105 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$6 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $7 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$4 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$5 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $13 +$20 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$3 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$4 -43%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 79¢ $64 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 76¢ $2 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $11 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $226 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $122 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 13h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $66 13h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $13 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1136 history records