Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:58:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9180…5af8 politics 197 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,614 (-1%) realized −$1,615 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate19%37W / 159L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,533per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$22
14 days−$126
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$174
other 36% −$290
sports 11% −$1,183
economics 2% −$6
world 2% −$32
culture 1% −$6
crypto 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 62 +2.7% -7.0% 10% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 128 -6.5% -15.4% 6% 3% -10.4%
all 196 +1.2% -8.4% 19% 9% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 9% -10.0%
10% -17.2% 9% -18.6%
15% -25.2% 8% -26.5%
20% -32.5% 6% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,301) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$15 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized−$1,615
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses37 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)196 / 197
History coverage143d
Avg bet$1,533
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $187 $188 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $289 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,565 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $2,509 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $538 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $1,677 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $2,485 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $939 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $789 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $849 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,839 −$5 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,941 −$3 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $2,022 −$3 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $838 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $899 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,749 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,193 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,583 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $4,693 −$5 -0%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2,251 −$3 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 06 $54 −$54 -100%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $6,113 −$7 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,078 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $7,568 −$8 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $4,031 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $67 +$45 +67%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $7,545 −$8 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,024 −$3 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $399 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $3,721 −$5 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $378 +$1 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $3,336 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $2,455 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $1,747 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $1,699 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $1,755 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $2,347 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,913 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,761 −$3 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $2,529 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $4,077 −$6 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $289 1h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $289 3h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $239 24h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $240 25h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $367 2d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $367 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $380 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $380 3d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $537 3d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $538 3d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $742 3d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $743 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $869 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $870 4d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $780 4d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $781 4d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $938 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $939 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $788 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $789 5d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $848 5d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $849 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $900 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $901 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $901 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $902 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $735 9d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $736 9d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $813 9d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $815 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.87 · official $187.87 (match) · 758 history records