Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

91
0x9181…e16b
crypto · 600 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$574 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$526 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$526
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses259 / 341
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)600 / 600
History coverage62d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day46.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 3 History 600 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$38
14 days−$87
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$514
other 1% −$21
sports 0% −$1
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $0 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $0 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $0 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $0 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 -13.9% -22.1% 47% 39% -24.9%
≤30d 363 -10.3% -18.8% 52% 41% -23.9%
≤90d 600 -14.2% -22.4% 43% 33% -27.6%
all 600 -14.2% -22.4% 43% 33% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.4% 33% -27.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.8% 22% -34.5%
15% -36.6% 12% -40.8%
20% -42.8% 7% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.09 (match) · 3500 history records