Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:14:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9182…db30 other 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate31%33W / 75L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$6
other 27% −$8
sports 22% +$13
economics 9% −$13
politics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.9% -8.7% 38% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 26 -0.3% -9.8% 27% 4% -9.7%
≤90d 49 -0.7% -10.2% 29% 2% -9.6%
all 108 -0.7% -10.1% 31% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 4% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses33 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)108 / 110
History coverage474d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 71¢ 69¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $78 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $77 +$1 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $77 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $85 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $78 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $76 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 18 $101 +$6 +6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $9 $0 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $231 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $157 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $329 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $200 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $341 −$12 -4%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $161 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $293 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $116 −$3 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $75 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $175 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $338 −$1 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $185 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $267 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $92 −$6 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $54 +$7 +13%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 22 $86 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 22 $167 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $179 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $83 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $87 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $87 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $87 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $86 +$1 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 14 $86 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $10 −$1 -9%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $32 −$2 -7%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $1,093 +$6 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $988 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $96 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $1,038 −$4 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $998 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $251 +$2 +1%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $62 −$9 -14%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $288 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $1,003 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $1,093 +$9 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 15 $16 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $18 29m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $1 30m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $47 30m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $11 30m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $78 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 91¢ $12 21h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 91¢ $66 21h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 90¢ $77 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $5 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $72 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $77 28h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $77 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $77 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $24 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $24 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $21 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $56 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $78 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $77 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $76 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $2 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $6 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $8 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $75 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $76 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $82 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $84 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $23 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.00 (match) · 410 history records