Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:10:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
91 0x9183…0598 other 46 markets active 14h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,661 (+25%) realized +$1,661 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$883
7 days+$1,071
14 days+$1,617
30 days+$1,617
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$839
sports 16% +$978
crypto 3% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +27.7% +15.5% 27% 27% +6.4%
≤30d 46 +29.6% +17.2% 28% 28% +12.8%
≤90d 46 +29.6% +17.2% 28% 28% +12.8%
all 46 +29.6% +17.2% 28% 28% +12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.2% 28% +12.8%
10% +6.0% 28% +2.0%
15% -4.2% 28% -7.8%
20% -13.6% 28% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +44% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$460 vs −$132 · ×3.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,661
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 33
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage7d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $103 +$564 +550%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $103 +$619 +603%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 +$222 +109%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $297 −$290 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $204 +$440 +216%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $308 −$300 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $266 −$260 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $204 +$440 +216%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $204 +$541 +264%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $103 +$672 +655%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 15 $154 −$150 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 15 $82 −$80 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $405 −$400 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$175 +86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$231 +226%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $103 +$724 +705%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$486 +474%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $72 +$317 +442%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 13 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $72 −$70 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $480 +$546 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 94¢ $722 14h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 38h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 38h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 38h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 38h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $425 3d
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 24¢ $82 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $195 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $204 3d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? SELL Yes 100¢ $644 4d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 4d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 31¢ $204 4d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 25¢ $204 4d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $644 4d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 100¢ $745 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $204 4d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $774 4d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $61 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $82 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records