Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:24:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

91
0x9186…0666
sports · 281 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$504 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$508 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$493
Realized+$508
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses110 / 157
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions4
Markets (closed)267 / 281
History coverage252d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 4 History 267 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$272
7 days+$610
14 days+$605
30 days+$616
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $358 $357 −$1 (-0%)
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 45¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? Jun 13 $204 −$54 -26%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $304 +$6 +2%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $322 −$38 -12%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $348 +$28 +8%
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $102 −$6 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,846 +$89 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 Jun 13 $10 +$11 +111%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will United States win on 2 Jun 13 $10 +$44 +425%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $645 +$47 +7%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? AND Will United States win on 2026-06- Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? AND Will United States Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 Jun 12 $51 −$30 -58%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,912 +$204 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,282 +$339 +15%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 04 $357 −$16 -4%
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,330 +$166 +12%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $340 −$96 -28%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $85 −$59 -69%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? May 31 $20 −$1 -4%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $660 −$61 -9%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $673 −$4 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $667 +$13 +2%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in May? May 20 $114 +$63 +55%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? May 20 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 17 $40 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? Jan 10 $20 −$12 -60%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 10 $140 −$15 -11%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jan 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 10? Jan 10 $5 −$4 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Nov 30 $12 −$3 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Nov 30 $2 −$1 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Nov 30 $22 −$11 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Nov 27 $30 −$12 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Nov 27 $35 +$7 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 26 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 25 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 25 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 25 $20 −$3 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 25 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 24 $140 −$61 -44%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2025? Nov 24 $35 −$11 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 21 $95 +$28 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 20 $3 −$2 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 20 $50 −$18 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 19 $3 −$2 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 18 $101 −$3 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 77% +$586
sports 18% +$67
crypto 2% −$116
politics 2% −$24
tech 1% −$6
world 0% −$6
economics 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 23¢ $20 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a BUY 11¢ $21 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? A BUY 8¢ $21 1h
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $75 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 82¢ $360 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $309 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $300 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 81¢ $350 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $251 5h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $251 5h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 89¢ $30 6h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 14¢ $34 6h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 87¢ $191 6h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 29¢ $51 6h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 67¢ $50 6h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $372 6h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 92¢ $301 7h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 17¢ $5 7h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 83¢ $38 7h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 37¢ $10 7h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 7h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 41¢ $96 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 8h
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 8h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 75¢ $403 20h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 18¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +11.7% +1.0% 50% 25% -2.7%
≤30d 28 +5.0% -5.0% 43% 21% -5.0%
≤90d 29 +6.4% -3.7% 45% 24% -5.0%
all 267 -5.2% -14.3% 41% 28% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 28% -6.3%
10% -22.5% 19% -15.2%
15% -30.0% 14% -23.4%
20% -36.8% 12% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $492.64 · official $637.64 · 924 history records