trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 12 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $36 | −$2 | -7% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 10 | $38 | −$1 | -2% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 09 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 08 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Walmart buy TikTok? | Dec 14 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? | Jun 25 | $9 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? | May 24 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | May 05 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? | Apr 17 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 17 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? | Apr 16 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Kanye's music pulled from Spotify before April? | Mar 29 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? | Mar 28 | $13 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or moreon March 28? | Mar 25 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? | Mar 23 | $12 | +$1 | +13% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -1.4% | -10.8% | 17% | 0% | -10.8% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -1.4% | -10.8% | 17% | 0% | -10.8% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -1.4% | -10.8% | 17% | 0% | -10.8% |
| all | 19 | +1.0% | -8.7% | 58% | 5% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.7% | 5% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -17.4% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -25.4% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -32.7% | 0% | -33.4% |