Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:21:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
91 0x9187…b2e1 sports 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$268 (+1%) realized +$268 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,799per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,186
7 days+$1,186
14 days+$1,186
30 days+$1,186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$60
other 11% +$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +8.6% -1.7% 89% 44% -4.2%
≤30d 9 +8.6% -1.7% 89% 44% -4.2%
≤90d 9 +8.6% -1.7% 89% 44% -4.2%
all 13 -7.3% -16.1% 77% 38% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 38% -8.8%
10% -24.1% 15% -17.5%
15% -31.4% 0% -25.5%
20% -38.2% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$236 vs −$723 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$268
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage152d
Avg bet$1,799
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $3,001 +$27 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $2,542 +$452 +18%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $1,347 +$159 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $3,809 −$1,048 -28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,002 +$81 +4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $2,721 +$785 +29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $673 +$49 +7%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $1,999 +$2 +0%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $1,991 +$679 +34%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) Jan 19 $178 −$178 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Western Jan 19 $1,121 −$943 -84%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs FORZE Reload - Map 1 Winner Jan 19 $1,007 +$115 +11%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Weste Jan 19 $996 +$11 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $3,028 24m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY Power Rangers 99¢ $3,001 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 100¢ $0 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo SELL TDK 100¢ $1,506 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY TDK 90¢ $502 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY TDK 89¢ $846 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 100¢ $2,993 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 85¢ $955 4h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 85¢ $1,507 4h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 68¢ $81 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 93¢ $2,305 15h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 17¢ $301 15h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 79¢ $1,505 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $2,002 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $3,505 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 77¢ $2,721 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 100¢ $1,999 39h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 93¢ $673 39h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $1,991 2d
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) BUY Capitals 63¢ $178 151d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Western SELL Team Liquid 12¢ $33 151d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Western SELL Team Liquid 13¢ $145 151d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Western BUY Team Liquid 78¢ $1,121 151d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs FORZE Reload - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $1,122 151d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs FORZE Reload - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 90¢ $1,007 151d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Weste SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $1,007 151d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Weste BUY Nigma Galaxy 99¢ $896 151d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Weste BUY Nigma Galaxy 98¢ $100 151d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records