Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:08:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
91 0x9187…08f4 sports 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,193 (+18%) realized +$2,225 · open −$32
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate70%40W / 17L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$137est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$502
7 days+$617
14 days+$1,418
30 days+$1,418
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$1,551
other 13% +$424
crypto 2% +$23
politics 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +9.3% -1.1% 67% 58% +23.7%
≤30d 19 +16.7% +5.6% 68% 63% +36.7%
≤90d 46 +4.0% -5.9% 65% 59% +10.3%
all 57 +9.8% -0.6% 70% 65% +10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 65% +10.8%
10% -10.2% 56% +0.2%
15% -18.8% 39% -9.5%
20% -26.8% 25% -18.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$133 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$1,258
Realized+$2,225
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses40 / 17
Est. fees paid−$137
Open positions11
Markets (closed)57 / 68
History coverage147d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 41¢ 37¢ $400 $361 −$39 (-10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $250 $267 +$17 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $150 $154 +$4 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $120 $122 +$2 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $62 +$12 (+23%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $404 +$202 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $253 +$112 +44%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $102 +$100 +99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,247 +$90 +7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $202 +$89 +44%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $221 +$23 +10%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $122 +$89 +73%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $81 −$80 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $92 +$93 +101%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $204 −$63 -31%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $64 +$60 +94%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $304 +$262 +86%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $202 +$69 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $394 +$192 +49%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $204 +$291 +143%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $406 +$397 +98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $51 −$50 -97%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $500 −$496 -99%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $559 −$559 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 18 $44 +$14 +32%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 17 $500 +$1,118 +224%
Penguins vs. Blues Apr 15 $200 +$103 +52%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 15 $200 −$77 -39%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 15 $200 +$43 +21%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $186 +$148 +79%
76ers vs. Rockets Apr 14 $265 +$121 +46%
Suns vs. Magic Apr 01 $200 +$65 +32%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FaZe (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Mar 31 $185 −$185 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Mar 30 $138 −$138 -100%
Knicks vs. Thunder Mar 30 $293 +$92 +32%
Celtics vs. Hornets Mar 30 $252 +$41 +16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Mar 29 $35 −$35 -100%
Clippers vs. Pacers Mar 29 $166 −$166 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterda Mar 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 29 $200 +$52 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Mar 29 $160 +$28 +18%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 29 $221 +$77 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 29 $138 +$12 +9%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 28 $149 +$72 +49%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Mar 28 $137 +$11 +8%
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers Mar 27 $203 +$63 +31%
LoL: Team Heretics vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 17 $116 +$31 +26%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Feb 09 $90 +$27 +30%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $82 +$18 +22%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 09 $57 +$25 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $407 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $404 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 96¢ $104 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 95¢ $202 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 47¢ $102 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 81¢ $262 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 50¢ $51 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $202 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 13¢ $51 44h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 30¢ $51 44h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 42¢ $220 44h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 28¢ $51 44h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 14¢ $51 44h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 49¢ $131 44h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 37¢ $102 44h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 $1 45h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under $1 45h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 78¢ $157 45h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 49¢ $102 45h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 60¢ $401 45h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 35¢ $25 45h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 71¢ $303 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 27¢ $423 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $409 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 92¢ $291 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 63¢ $202 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team $6 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $102 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $18 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,258.05 · official $1,282.44 · 153 history records