Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
91 0x9189…c733 other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$77 (+4%) realized +$76 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate46%23W / 27L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$925now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$103
world 8% +$23
sports 7% −$57
crypto 6% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 47 -0.3% -9.8% 47% 32% -1.9%
all 50 -0.6% -10.1% 46% 32% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 32% -0.9%
10% -18.7% 24% -10.3%
15% -26.5% 16% -19.0%
20% -33.7% 14% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$925
Realized+$76
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses23 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)50 / 61
History coverage590d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $227 $240 +$13 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $177 $166 −$11 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $151 $154 +$2 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $144 $144 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $94 $87 −$7 (-7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $30 $38 +$7 (+24%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $33 $29 −$4 (-11%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 18 $1 +$1 +129%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $25 +$8 +30%
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $107 +$14 +13%
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $68 +$14 +20%
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $36 −$15 -41%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) May 11 $3 $0 +7%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 11 $1 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: 5star vs Rare Atom (BO3) - Asian Champions League Grou May 11 $2 $0 -18%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $2 +$1 +60%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $2 +$1 +65%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 10 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? May 09 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 09 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 08 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 07 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Australia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 07 $2 −$1 -32%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $44 +$63 +146%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 06 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $5 $0 +10%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) Apr 30 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 29 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Apr 29 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 29 $4 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 29 $8 −$1 -15%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) Apr 29 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 28 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 28 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 28 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 28 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 28 $6 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 28 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 28 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 28 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 28 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 28 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 28 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 28 $3 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $50 +$43 +86%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Apr 04 $45 −$2 -4%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 03 $74 +$24 +33%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024? Nov 12 $7 −$3 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $42 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $56 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $36 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $76 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $37 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $49 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $109 43h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $69 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $81 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $48 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $19 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $57 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $34 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY 68¢ $30 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $56 31d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $65 31d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 31d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 31d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $1 34d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 43¢ $1 34d
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $21 35d
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $21 35d
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 40d
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 40d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $3 40d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $925.19 · official $925.35 (match) · 293 history records