Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:24:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

91
0x9189…de9f
other · 42 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$27 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$26 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$26
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses13 / 23
Open positions6
Markets (closed)36 / 42
History coverage248d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%
Chart Positions 6 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 65¢ 45¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Serie A league? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league? Jun 07 $5 +$14 +270%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards Apr 26 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026? Feb 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Feb 11 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026 Feb 11 $3 +$8 +257%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31? Jan 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-12-20? Dec 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 23 $2 +$2 +117%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Dec 20 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a human? Dec 13 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Israel win on 2025-10-14? Dec 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Armenia win on 2025-10-14? Dec 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Andorra win on 2025-10-14? Dec 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain vs. Bulgaria end in a draw? Dec 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bulgaria win on 2025-10-14? Dec 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Latvia win on 2025-10-14? Dec 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Issa Tchiroma Bakary win the Cameroon Presidential Election? Dec 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paul Biya win the Cameroon Presidential Election? Dec 11 $10 −$4 -41%
Will “The Diplomat” be the top global Netflix show this week? (October Dec 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Microsoft be the second most valuable company on October 31? Dec 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-03? Dec 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cagliari win on 2025-11-03? Dec 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sydney Sweeney be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2 Dec 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lazio win on 2025-11-03? Nov 12 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Genoa win on 2025-11-03? Nov 12 $3 +$2 +61%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Oct 15 $2 $0 +12%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down - October 15 Oct 15 $5 +$6 +117%
Will Italy win on 2025-10-14? Oct 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Hungary win on 2025-10-14? Oct 14 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election Oct 13 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Serie A league? Oct 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 55% −$14
politics 15% −$12
tech 13% +$3
culture 9% −$9
sports 7% +$8
crypto 1% −$1
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 32h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 93d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 139d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 139d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $3 139d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 139d
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-12-20? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 175d
Will AS Roma win on 2025-12-20? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 175d
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 185d
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 185d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 185d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 185d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 185d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 185d
Will Sydney Sweeney be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2 BUY Yes 35¢ $5 213d
Will Lazio win on 2025-11-03? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 222d
Will Cagliari win on 2025-11-03? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 222d
Will Genoa win on 2025-11-03? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 222d
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-03? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 222d
Will “The Diplomat” be the top global Netflix show this week? (October BUY Yes 70¢ $10 234d
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 239d
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? SELL Yes 83¢ $2 241d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down - October 15 SELL Down 100¢ $11 241d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down - October 15 BUY Down 46¢ $5 242d
Will Hungary win on 2025-10-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 242d
Will Issa Tchiroma Bakary win the Cameroon Presidential Election? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 242d
Will Armenia win on 2025-10-14? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 242d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +270.4% +235.1% 100% 100% +235.1%
≤90d 3 +66.7% +50.9% 67% 67% +50.9%
all 36 -31.6% -38.2% 36% 36% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.2% 36% -26.4%
10% -44.1% 31% -33.4%
15% -49.5% 22% -39.9%
20% -54.4% 17% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.20 · official $26.20 (match) · 83 history records