Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:12:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x918b…9073 world 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$3
other 17% −$1
politics 7% −$5
crypto 4% −$2
tech 4% $0
finance 2% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 44% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 +0.6% -9.0% 42% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 18 +1.7% -8.0% 33% 6% -9.1%
all 49 -2.2% -11.5% 33% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 2% -9.9%
10% -20.0% 2% -18.6%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage459d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $42 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $54 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 24 $48 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 23 $51 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $24 −$1 -4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $9 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $61 −$2 -3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $51 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $34 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $47 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $39 +$3 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $7 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $34 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Dec 13 $7 $0 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 26 $5 −$4 -99%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 04 $5 $0 -10%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec May 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr May 26 $7 $0 -2%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 21 $7 $0 +3%
Will Norway finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 17 $7 $0 -2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 15 $7 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 10 $7 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on May 9? May 08 $8 −$2 -19%
Will Aaron Rodgers retire? May 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 08 $2 $0 -8%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 07 $9 $0 -0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 07 $9 $0 +4%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 16 $4 $0 +1%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? Apr 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 10 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Scott Bessent be out as Secretary of the Treasury in Trump's firs Apr 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 01 $14 $0 +1%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 29 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $9 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $34 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $46 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $46 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $35 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $35 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $42 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $42 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $20 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $2 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $24 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $18 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $19 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $4 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $12 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $9 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $4 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $4 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $11 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $13 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $14 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $43 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $43 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $12 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $29 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.53 · official $42.53 (match) · 152 history records