Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:16:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9190…9509 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$398 (-10%) realized −$365 · open −$33
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate88%21W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$85
30 days+$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% +$86
other 25% −$23
politics 23% −$540
crypto 18% +$33
world 3% +$3
tech 3% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +8.5% -1.9% 100% 0% -1.9%
≤90d 1 +8.5% -1.9% 100% 0% -1.9%
all 24 -7.7% -16.5% 88% 4% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 4% -19.0%
10% -24.5% 0% -26.8%
15% -31.8% 0% -33.8%
20% -38.5% 0% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$196 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$365
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses21 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage227d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 12¢ $50 $17 −$33 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,003 +$85 +8%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 03 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any st Jan 30 $98 +$3 +3%
AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $124 +$4 +3%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $100 +$1 +1%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 01 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani be deported by December 31? Jan 01 $100 +$3 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 01 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $110 +$4 +4%
Will Pakistan invade India in 2025? Jan 01 $113 +$3 +3%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? Jan 01 $115 +$5 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 01 $117 +$4 +3%
Epstein confirmed as foreign agent in 2025? Jan 01 $122 +$5 +4%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $127 +$6 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $129 +$7 +5%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025? Dec 26 $495 −$450 -91%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 19 $100 +$3 +3%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Dec 03 $100 +$22 +22%
Will Solana reach $190 in November? Dec 03 $120 +$4 +4%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Nov 19 $100 +$9 +9%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? Nov 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on November 12? Nov 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Nov 11 $38 −$38 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,088 13d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,003 13d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 75¢ $104 143d
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any st SELL Yes 91¢ $6 147d
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any st SELL Yes 91¢ $11 158d
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any st SELL Yes 91¢ $41 160d
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any st SELL Yes 91¢ $5 160d
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any st SELL Yes 91¢ $10 160d
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any st SELL Yes 91¢ $27 160d
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025? SELL Yes $45 182d
Will Solana reach $190 in November? BUY No 96¢ $120 217d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 95¢ $129 217d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? BUY No 96¢ $127 217d
AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2025? BUY No 97¢ $124 217d
Epstein confirmed as foreign agent in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $122 218d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? SELL No 98¢ $109 219d
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any st BUY Yes 88¢ $7 221d
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any st BUY Yes 88¢ $52 222d
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any st BUY Yes 88¢ $4 222d
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any st BUY Yes 88¢ $7 222d
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any st BUY Yes 88¢ $11 222d
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any st BUY Yes 88¢ $1 223d
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any st BUY Yes 88¢ $15 223d
Will Zohran Mamdani be deported by December 31? BUY No 97¢ $100 225d
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? BUY No $100 226d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $117 226d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 96¢ $115 226d
Will Pakistan invade India in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $113 226d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $110 226d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.87 · official $5.21 · 146 history records