trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +8.5% | -1.9% | 100% | 0% | -1.9% |
| ≤90d | 1 | +8.5% | -1.9% | 100% | 0% | -1.9% |
| all | 24 | -7.7% | -16.5% | 88% | 4% | -19.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.5% | 4% | -19.0% |
| 10% | -24.5% | 0% | -26.8% |
| 15% | -31.8% | 0% | -33.8% |
| 20% | -38.5% | 0% | -40.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? | Yes | 12¢ | 4¢ | $50 | $17 | −$33 (-66%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $1,003 | +$85 | +8% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Feb 03 | $100 | +$4 | +4% |
| Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any st | Jan 30 | $98 | +$3 | +3% |
| AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2025? | Jan 02 | $124 | +$4 | +3% |
| Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? | Jan 01 | $100 | +$1 | +1% |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | Jan 01 | $100 | +$2 | +2% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be deported by December 31? | Jan 01 | $100 | +$3 | +3% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | Jan 01 | $100 | +$8 | +8% |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | Jan 01 | $110 | +$4 | +4% |
| Will Pakistan invade India in 2025? | Jan 01 | $113 | +$3 | +3% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? | Jan 01 | $115 | +$5 | +4% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | Jan 01 | $117 | +$4 | +3% |
| Epstein confirmed as foreign agent in 2025? | Jan 01 | $122 | +$5 | +4% |
| Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? | Jan 01 | $127 | +$6 | +4% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Jan 01 | $129 | +$7 | +5% |
| Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025? | Dec 26 | $495 | −$450 | -91% |
| Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Dec 19 | $100 | +$3 | +3% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? | Dec 03 | $100 | +$22 | +22% |
| Will Solana reach $190 in November? | Dec 03 | $120 | +$4 | +4% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? | Nov 19 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? | Nov 19 | $100 | +$9 | +9% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? | Nov 15 | $100 | +$4 | +4% |
| Will the price of Solana be above $170 on November 12? | Nov 13 | $100 | +$3 | +3% |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Nov 11 | $38 | −$38 | -100% |