Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:44:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9192…2750 crypto 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$283 (-24%) realized −$284 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%27W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$56
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$119
other 29% −$60
sports 21% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +16.8% +5.6% 52% 52% -14.0%
≤30d 26 +11.4% +0.8% 50% 50% -22.8%
≤90d 29 +9.4% -1.0% 52% 52% -21.9%
all 56 -10.4% -19.0% 48% 48% -32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 48% -32.4%
10% -26.7% 39% -38.8%
15% -33.8% 32% -44.8%
20% -40.3% 25% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$18 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$284
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses27 / 29
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage122d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $40 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $38 −$38 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $43 +$27 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $9 +$1 +14%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $14 +$36 +262%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $38 −$37 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $38 +$27 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$7 +238%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$7 +233%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +109%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$20 +134%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -53%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +67%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -80%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +158%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $17 +$3 +20%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians May 12 $6 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Feb 23 $136 −$136 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Feb 23 $110 +$27 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Feb 23 $69 +$17 +25%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs England Feb 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Feb 22 $18 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Feb 22 $91 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9PM ET Feb 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Feb 21 $6 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Feb 21 $6 −$6 -100%
T20 World Cup: New Zealand vs Pakistan Feb 21 $16 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Feb 21 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Feb 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Feb 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Feb 21 $7 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Feb 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Feb 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Feb 21 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Feb 21 $7 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Feb 21 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Feb 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Feb 21 $6 +$4 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $24 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $38 17h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $43 38h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 38h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 88¢ $9 38h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $38 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $17 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $38 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 7d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.50 · official $40.50 (match) · 107 history records