Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:30:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
91 0x9198…15df crypto 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$9 (+2%) realized +$54 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%19W / 15L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day83.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$76
tech 13% −$49
world 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +12.6% +1.9% 56% 50% +11.1%
≤30d 34 +12.6% +1.9% 56% 50% +11.1%
≤90d 34 +12.6% +1.9% 56% 50% +11.1%
all 34 +12.6% +1.9% 56% 50% +11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.9% 50% +11.1%
10% ← realistic here -7.9% 44% +0.4%
15% -16.8% 38% -9.3%
20% -24.9% 35% -18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$54
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses19 / 15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day83.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 52¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+91%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? No 22¢ 1¢ $51 $2 −$49 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$38 +247%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.19 · official $25.42 (match) · 117 history records