Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:00:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

91 0x919d…bf1e other 9 markets active 15h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$380 (+4%) realized +$381 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip

Net edge-34%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown36%max

Avg bet$1,193per market

Trades / day8.2pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$399now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-25.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-17.4%	-25.3%	60%	40%	-6.0%
≤30d	5	-17.4%	-25.3%	60%	40%	-6.0%
≤90d	5	-17.4%	-25.3%	60%	40%	-6.0%
all	5	-17.4%	-25.3%	60%	40%	-6.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.2 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-25.3%	40%	-6.0%
10% ← realistic here	-32.4%	40%	-15.0%
15%	-38.9%	40%	-23.2%
20%	-44.9%	40%	-30.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 57% · top 2 84% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -17% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$224 vs −$153 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$399

Realized+$381

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions2

Markets (closed)5 / 9

History coverage2d

Avg bet$1,193

Trades / day8.2

Drawdown36%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	43¢	44¢	$200	$202	+$2 (+1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	Yes	32¢	32¢	$200	$197	−$3 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$183	+$104	+57%
Germany leading at halftime?	Jun 21	$206	−$206	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$707	+$380	+54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$8,104	+$187	+2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	24¢	$102	14h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND	BUY	2¢	$515	34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi	BUY	11¢	$513	34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,088	35h
Germany leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	6¢	$206	37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$505	37h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$8,291	38h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	99¢	$7,902	39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	63¢	$183	2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$204	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$203	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$202	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$203	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $399.20 · official $899.19 · 15 history records