Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:19:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
91 0x919f…8c07 weather 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$517 (-3%) realized −$518 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%116W / 6L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$499now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$8
30 days−$518
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$516
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 57 -1.6% -11.0% 98% 0% -12.9%
≤90d 114 -2.2% -11.5% 96% 0% -12.4%
all 122 -2.4% -11.7% 95% 0% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 0% -12.4%
10% -20.1% 0% -20.8%
15% -27.8% 0% -28.4%
20% -34.9% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$89 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$499
Realized−$518
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses116 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)122 / 124
History coverage112d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $339 $339 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $159 $160 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 18? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $290 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $265 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 14 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $546 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $119 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $546 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $222 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 10? Jun 10 $543 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 9? Jun 10 $546 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $544 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $542 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $474 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $387 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 6? Jun 06 $396 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 5? Jun 06 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $194 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $209 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 5? Jun 05 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 4? Jun 05 $482 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $126 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $423 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 3? Jun 04 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 2? Jun 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 3? Jun 03 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 3? Jun 03 $329 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 03 $119 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $333 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 2? Jun 02 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 2? Jun 02 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 1? Jun 02 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 1? Jun 02 $259 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 1? Jun 02 $121 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 31? Jun 01 $251 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 31? Jun 01 $292 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 30? May 31 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 30? May 31 $294 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 29? May 30 $248 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $159 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $339 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $550 27h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 45h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $22 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $88 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $265 5d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $220 5d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $71 5d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 100¢ $549 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $546 7d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $119 7d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $250 7d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $70 8d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $546 8d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $222 9d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $543 10d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $546 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $544 10d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C or below on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $542 12d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $474 13d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $72 13d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $387 13d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $64 13d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or below on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $94 14d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $396 14d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $63 14d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $209 14d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $77 14d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $499.24 · official $499.24 (match) · 250 history records