Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:55:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
91 0x919f…56f7 other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate50%20W / 20L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% $0
other 39% +$1
politics 10% +$1
weather 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.9% -10.4% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 14 -0.9% -10.4% 29% 0% -9.5%
all 40 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -9.3%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses20 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage468d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $71 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $38 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $37 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $30 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $78 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $39 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $90 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $35 +$2 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $3 −$1 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 28 $6 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 06 $5 +$1 +16%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 23 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 09 $2 −$1 -28%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Apr 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Greens be part of the next German government? Apr 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 27 $13 $0 -1%
Will Trump increase cap on H-1B visas in first 100 days? Apr 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 27 $13 $0 -0%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 26 $15 $0 -1%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? Apr 25 $16 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 03 $16 $0 +2%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? Mar 25 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $9 $0 +5%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 21 $7 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 72°F or higher on March 20? Mar 21 $15 $0 +1%
Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 44°F or below on March 18? Mar 19 $15 $0 +1%
Will another team have the highest Constructor score at the Australian Mar 17 $15 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 15 $14 $0 -1%
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? Mar 15 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $42 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $42 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $16 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $21 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $13 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 38h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 38h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $19 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $29 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $37 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $20 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $17 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $30 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $19 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $10 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $20 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $20 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $33 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $31 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $22 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $17 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $39 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $6 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $10 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $11 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.21 · official $2.02 (match) · 117 history records