Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91a5…ef2e world 222 markets active 12h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$453 (+6%) realized +$543 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate31%60W / 134L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$471now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days+$425
14 days+$45
30 days+$590
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$125
other 9% −$92
crypto 9% +$398
finance 5% +$33
politics 2% −$5
weather 0% −$19
sports 0% +$199
culture 0% −$10
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -14.0% -22.2% 22% 20% +26.0%
≤30d 94 -7.2% -16.1% 33% 28% +7.4%
≤90d 151 -29.4% -36.2% 26% 20% -1.4%
all 194 -23.0% -30.3% 31% 23% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 23% -1.8%
10% -37.0% 21% -11.2%
15% -43.1% 15% -19.8%
20% -48.7% 11% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$12 · ×2.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$471
Realized+$543
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses60 / 134
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions46
Markets (closed)194 / 222
History coverage112d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 66¢ 100¢ $79 $120 +$41 (+53%)
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+46%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-27%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $16 $21 +$5 (+31%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $45 $17 −$28 (-62%)
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by June 30? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $21 $15 −$6 (-27%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+37%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $41 $13 −$28 (-68%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-49%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-56%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $62 −$33 -54%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 18 $11 +$4 +37%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $84 −$17 -21%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $412 +$117 +28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $163 −$124 -76%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $70 −$70 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $86 −$86 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $89 −$41 -46%
Will Trump say "Paper Tiger" during G7 events? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $55 −$23 -42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $110 −$29 -26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $30 +$35 +117%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $40 +$49 +122%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $164 +$241 +147%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $74 +$185 +250%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$54 +54%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $11 +$200 +1766%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $40 −$11 -27%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 11 $30 −$2 -6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $40 −$36 -90%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $383 −$279 -73%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $191 −$56 -29%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $81 −$79 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 07 $32 −$30 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 15h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 15h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 18h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $19 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 22h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 22h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 23h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 23h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $471.25 · official $471.05 (match) · 790 history records