Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:23:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
91 0x91a8…b42e other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$251 (-2%) realized −$251 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$808per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$945
7 days+$2,269
14 days+$2,269
30 days+$2,269
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$1,394
sports 20% −$558
crypto 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +59.4% +44.3% 43% 43% +19.9%
≤30d 14 +59.4% +44.3% 43% 43% +19.9%
≤90d 17 +31.3% +18.8% 35% 35% -5.5%
all 19 +29.7% +17.3% 37% 37% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.3% 37% -1.5%
10% +6.1% 37% -10.9%
15% -4.2% 37% -19.5%
20% -13.6% 37% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$1,017) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +69% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$795 vs −$395 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$251
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage160d
Avg bet$808
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,941 +$1,059 +55%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $308 −$15 -5%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $164 +$246 +149%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $226 −$51 -22%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $607 −$595 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $430 −$59 -14%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $287 −$34 -12%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $509 −$500 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,017 +$910 +90%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $712 +$995 +140%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$186 +604%
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? Jun 17 $260 +$643 +248%
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 01 $2,910 −$2,264 -78%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 01 $43 −$43 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 20 $2,720 +$1,523 +56%
Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jan 15 $2,657 −$651 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 15¢ $292 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 21¢ $410 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes $175 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No $16 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 35¢ $607 12h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $371 12h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 13¢ $253 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,941 14h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 14¢ $287 15h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $430 15h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes $164 15h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $226 15h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $308 15h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $509 17h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 85¢ $1,927 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1,017 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $508 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $509 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $29 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $15 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 3d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No $1 81d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No $35 81d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No $6 81d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No $1 81d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No $342 81d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No $3 81d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No $184 81d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No $6 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records