Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:35:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
91 0x91aa…9168 tech 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care tech specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$530 (-78%) realized −$519 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -82% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -83% what you keep after slip
Net edge-83%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 100% −$584
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-83.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -81.5% -83.3% 0% 0% -92.5%
≤30d 2 -81.5% -83.3% 0% 0% -92.5%
≤90d 2 -81.5% -83.3% 0% 0% -92.5%
all 2 -81.5% -83.3% 0% 0% -92.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -83.3% 0% -92.5%
10% -84.9% 0% -93.2%
15% -86.4% 0% -93.8%
20% -87.7% 0% -94.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -92% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -82% · $-wt -92% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$286 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$519
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage5d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $50 $38 −$11 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 21 $63 −$44 -69%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 21 $561 −$529 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.39 · official $38.39 (match) · 9 history records