Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:39:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91aa…001f sports 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%16W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% $0
other 21% −$3
politics 21% −$2
crypto 10% −$2
culture 6% −$3
world 4% −$3
tech 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 139 -0.3% -9.8% 12% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses16 / 123
Open positions0
Markets (closed)139 / 139
History coverage157d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 139 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $129 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $59 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $30 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 26 $108 −$1 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 26 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 26 $78 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 26 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 26 $36 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 26 $149 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 26 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 26 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 26 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 18 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 18 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 18 $83 +$1 +1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 18 $22 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 18 $130 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 18 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $108 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 18 $74 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 13 $170 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 13 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 13 $111 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Feb 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 13 $122 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 13 $73 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 13 $95 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 11 $82 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 11 $139 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $39 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $39 7h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $37 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $37 7d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $34 19d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $34 20d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 93¢ $30 33d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 93¢ $30 33d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 96¢ $30 113d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 96¢ $30 113d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $35 113d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $35 113d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $36 113d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $36 113d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 114d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 114d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $36 114d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $36 114d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $36 114d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $36 114d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 95¢ $29 114d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 95¢ $29 114d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $42 114d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $42 114d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $30 114d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $30 114d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $29 114d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $29 114d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $43 122d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $43 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 586 history records