Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:43:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91ad…b29e other 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% $0
politics 14% $0
crypto 9% $0
sports 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -4.7% -13.8% 0% 0% -13.8%
≤30d 1 -4.7% -13.8% 0% 0% -13.8%
≤90d 1 -4.7% -13.8% 0% 0% -13.8%
all 1 -4.7% -13.8% 0% 0% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 0% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 0% -22.0%
15% -29.5% 0% -29.5%
20% -36.5% 0% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions18
Markets (closed)1 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1 3m
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 31¢ $1 4m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 32¢ $1 6m
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7m
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1 7m
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $1 8m
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 3¢ $1 19m
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 77¢ $1 22m
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $1 22m
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $1 34m
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1 34m
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 40m
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 96¢ $1 51m
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1 57m
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 57m
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 32¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 92¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.59 · official $20.59 (match) · 23 history records