Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:19:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
91 0x91af…9a27 sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,769 (+12%) realized +$5,182 · open −$1,413
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%18W / 19L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$819per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$268est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,987now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,086
7 days+$2,942
14 days+$3,559
30 days+$3,559
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$1,612
other 5% +$534
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +13.0% +2.2% 50% 50% +0.8%
≤30d 37 +3.2% -6.6% 49% 46% +2.2%
≤90d 37 +3.2% -6.6% 49% 46% +2.2%
all 37 +3.2% -6.6% 49% 46% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 46% +2.2%
10% -15.6% 43% -7.6%
15% -23.7% 27% -16.5%
20% -31.2% 19% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$750) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$424 vs −$214 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,987
Realized+$5,182
Unrealized−$1,413
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses18 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$268
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage10d
Avg bet$819
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Over 74¢ 44¢ $3,400 $1,987 −$1,413 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $7,875 +$2,272 +29%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $6,328 +$1,550 +24%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1,206 −$1,186 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $354 −$350 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $758 −$750 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $757 +$361 +48%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 +$24 +76%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $101 +$94 +93%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,302 +$442 +34%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $998 +$304 +30%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $238 −$235 -99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $508 +$313 +62%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $401 +$516 +129%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $201 −$201 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $605 −$605 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $402 −$400 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,190 +$425 +36%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,197 −$7 -1%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $203 −$2 -1%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$448 +873%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $101 +$31 +30%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $101 +$24 +24%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $501 +$53 +11%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $191 −$43 -23%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $108 −$5 -5%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 +$72 +71%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $301 +$29 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,198 +$571 +48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 74¢ $3,426 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $102 18h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 18h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10,147 22h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $7,875 23h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $7,878 25h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $6,328 26h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1,206 45h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $354 47h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $758 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,118 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $757 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $54 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $196 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,744 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1,302 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,302 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $998 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $238 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $624 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $305 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $917 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $198 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $197 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $605 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $203 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $201 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,987.47 · official $1,987.47 (match) · 72 history records