Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91b1…cee1 world 37 markets active 6d ago coverage 734d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,160 (-2%) realized −$5,160 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate73%27W / 10L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,959per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2,048
14 days+$2,048
30 days+$2,048
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 97% −$4,528
other 3% −$645
crypto 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +204.8% +175.8% 100% 100% +175.8%
≤30d 1 +204.8% +175.8% 100% 100% +175.8%
≤90d 9 +29.6% +17.3% 56% 44% -17.5%
all 37 +9.5% -1.0% 73% 19% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.0% 19% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -10.4% 11% -19.6%
15% -19.1% 8% -27.4%
20% -27.0% 8% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$13,251) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$604 vs −$2,146 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

734d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,160
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses27 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage734d
Avg bet$7,959
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1,000 +$2,048 +205%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 10 $15,405 −$8,627 -56%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $1,000 +$1,006 +101%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $24,195 −$5,764 -24%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 07 $6,443 +$1,950 +30%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $6,189 −$512 -8%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $13,251 +$2,718 +20%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 23 $10,861 +$147 +1%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Mar 19 $2,179 −$66 -3%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 13 $4,461 +$532 +12%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 09 $720 −$38 -5%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Feb 28 $4,000 +$3,687 +92%
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? Feb 28 $2,000 +$162 +8%
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31? Feb 28 $1,900 −$689 -36%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $8,065 −$1,047 -13%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $17,281 −$4,717 -27%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Feb 19 $30,467 +$1,382 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 13 $5,350 +$365 +7%
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026? Feb 08 $5,944 +$6 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jan 22 $15,854 +$233 +2%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 18 $2,677 +$66 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jan 17 $25,571 +$531 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jan 16 $68 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 05 $35,648 +$347 +1%
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by February 4? Jan 05 $15 +$1 +6%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Jan 04 $2,000 +$2 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Dec 19 $2,000 $0 -0%
Ukraine joins NATO in 2025? Dec 18 $1,000 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 18 $18,900 +$714 +4%
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31? Dec 17 $6,395 +$71 +1%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Dec 16 $3,000 +$81 +3%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together in 2025? Dec 15 $1,190 +$12 +1%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Dec 15 $1,078 +$48 +4%
Andrii Yermak arrested by November 30? Dec 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025? Dec 03 $4,561 +$9 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Nov 26 $13,500 +$151 +1%
LayerZero airdrop by June 30? Aug 16 $209 +$29 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $1,000 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 17¢ $1,357 38d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 18¢ $1,435 38d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 73¢ $55 60d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 75¢ $34 60d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 73¢ $3,897 60d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 75¢ $10,000 61d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 67¢ $5,360 61d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 66¢ $45 61d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 99¢ $591 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $6,436 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? SELL Yes 99¢ $8,393 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,842 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 59¢ $353 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 84¢ $5,489 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 77¢ $306 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 34¢ $83 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 34¢ $20 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 34¢ $40 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 34¢ $140 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 34¢ $472 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY Yes 70¢ $2,000 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $34 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $3,764 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $2,644 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 26¢ $1,000 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL No 58¢ $2,033 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL No 57¢ $1,718 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL No 56¢ $1,680 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL No 54¢ $1,619 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 576 history records