Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:54:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
91 0x91b2…4d32 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$70 (+7%) realized +$74 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$120
7 days+$149
14 days+$149
30 days+$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$115
sports 11% +$11
crypto 8% +$19
world 8% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +21.6% +10.1% 53% 53% +16.5%
≤30d 15 +21.6% +10.1% 53% 53% +16.5%
≤90d 15 +21.6% +10.1% 53% 53% +16.5%
all 16 +14.0% +3.2% 50% 50% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.2% 50% +1.8%
10% -6.7% 50% -7.9%
15% -15.7% 50% -16.8%
20% -24.0% 38% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$22 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$346
Realized+$74
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)16 / 24
History coverage153d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 56¢ 64¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+13%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 66¢ $35 $39 +$4 (+13%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$9 +47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $81 +$73 +91%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$29 +58%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$23 +76%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 +$40 +388%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $61 +$24 +40%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 −$13 -17%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$2 -7%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 +$24 +93%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Jan 22 $75 −$75 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $35 6h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 6h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $76 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $30 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $155 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 26h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $80 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 28h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $18 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $61 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $36 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 49¢ $68 4d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $35 4d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $19 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $346.06 · official $346.06 (match) · 46 history records