Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:19:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91b4…5ee0 other 247 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 232L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$16
14 days−$30
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$44
sports 24% −$23
politics 9% −$9
culture 7% −$8
economics 5% −$5
world 4% −$1
crypto 3% +$5
tech 2% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 63 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 246 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)246 / 247
History coverage138d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 98¢ 97¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $129 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $150 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $204 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $243 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $364 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $639 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $354 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $709 −$2 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $436 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $96 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $497 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $137 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $769 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $198 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $197 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $531 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $748 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $242 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $137 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $226 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $830 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $495 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $374 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $419 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $175 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 10 $768 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $145 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $70 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $418 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $674 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $189 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $599 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $71 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $780 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $153 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $487 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $63 13m
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 29m
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 1h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 3h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 4h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 7h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 9h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $63 12h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $63 14h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 16h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 18h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 18h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $64 19h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 22h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 23h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 31h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 33h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $64 37h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $64 38h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $64 40h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $64 41h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 43h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 45h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $29 45h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $31 47h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $4 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.79 · official $62.79 (match) · 1406 history records