Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:20:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91b6…4b40 sports 76 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,157 (-18%) realized −$2,119 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate27%19W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$271est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$661
7 days−$2,896
14 days−$3,073
30 days−$3,073
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$2,991
other 3% −$110
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +2.0% -7.7% 28% 26% -40.1%
≤30d 71 -3.2% -12.5% 27% 25% -37.4%
≤90d 71 -3.2% -12.5% 27% 25% -37.4%
all 71 -3.2% -12.5% 27% 25% -37.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 25% -37.4%
10% -20.8% 25% -43.4%
15% -28.5% 23% -48.9%
20% -35.5% 18% -53.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$106 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$2,119
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses19 / 52
Est. fees paid−$271
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 76
History coverage19d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Milos Karol 12¢ 0¢ $40 $2 −$38 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $235 −$130 -55%
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $610 −$300 -49%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $204 +$354 +174%
ITF Taipei: Reina Goto vs Misaki Matsuda Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $256 −$250 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$24 +234%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $40 −$38 -96%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $6 −$5 -84%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $50 +$23 +46%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $0 $0 -97%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $97 −$96 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -13%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $201 +$267 +133%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $140 −$107 -76%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $202 +$66 +33%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $256 −$250 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $112 +$90 +80%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $10 −$1 -14%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $10 +$7 +65%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $21 −$19 -91%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $10 −$2 -21%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $10 −$1 -12%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $61 −$20 -33%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $162 −$160 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $263 −$173 -66%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $256 −$255 -99%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $214 +$81 +38%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $184 +$113 +61%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $113 −$110 -98%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $900 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $534 −$510 -96%
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Nicolas Kicker Jun 13 $153 −$150 -98%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $54 −$10 -18%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $196 +$26 +13%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $123 −$55 -45%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $525 +$198 +38%
Cattolica: Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 12 $311 −$81 -26%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $113 −$110 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $305 −$100 -33%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $241 +$109 +45%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $662 −$188 -28%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $122 −$120 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Milos Karol 6¢ $10 25m
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Milos Karol 17¢ $31 41m
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux BUY Geoffrey Blancaneaux 15¢ $31 49m
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux SELL Cosme de Ravel 89¢ $25 50m
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux SELL Cosme de Ravel 89¢ $209 50m
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux BUY Geoffrey Blancaneaux 23¢ $102 1h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux BUY Cosme de Ravel 38¢ $102 1h
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Mackenzie McDonald 8¢ $10 1h
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata BUY Yanki Erel 56¢ $6 2h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 19¢ $102 3h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 49¢ $102 3h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Ann Li 36¢ $0 3h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 65¢ $101 3h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Ann Li 25¢ $393 3h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Ann Li 25¢ $2 3h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Ann Li 25¢ $6 3h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 11¢ $103 3h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 25¢ $100 4h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 34¢ $102 4h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti SELL Darya Astakhova 99¢ $558 4h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Darya Astakhova 35¢ $102 5h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Darya Astakhova 36¢ $102 6h
ITF Taipei: Reina Goto vs Misaki Matsuda BUY Reina Goto 41¢ $41 10h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Los Angeles Sparks 6¢ $51 12h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $34 12h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Los Angeles Sparks 12¢ $103 12h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Los Angeles Sparks 32¢ $102 12h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 5¢ $10 13h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx SELL PortlandFire 2¢ $1 14h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings SELL Dallas Wings 86¢ $2 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.72 · official $1.72 (match) · 269 history records