Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:38:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91b7…01e8 crypto 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$244 (-14%) realized −$109 · open −$135
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%19W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$433now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days−$96
14 days−$93
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$278
crypto 42% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +11.6% +1.0% 55% 55% -20.0%
≤30d 22 +12.1% +1.4% 55% 55% -19.5%
≤90d 38 -3.3% -12.6% 50% 50% -23.4%
all 38 -3.3% -12.6% 50% 50% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 50% -23.4%
10% -20.9% 34% -30.7%
15% -28.6% 21% -37.4%
20% -35.6% 18% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$15 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$433
Realized−$109
Unrealized−$135
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses19 / 19
Open positions5
Markets (closed)38 / 43
History coverage86d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $302 $299 −$3 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $100 $64 −$36 (-36%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $60 $47 −$13 (-22%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $91 $12 −$79 (-87%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 40¢ 30¢ $15 $12 −$4 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$12 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$37 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $51 −$31 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$29 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$15 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$35 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$25 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$14 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$3 +12%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $114 −$91 -80%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $120 −$6 -5%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $20 −$6 -30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $14 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$2 +180%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 04 $5 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 28 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 28 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 28 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 28 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 28 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 28 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 28 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $32 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $29 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $12 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $28 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $13 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $433.41 · official $434.57 (match) · 170 history records