Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:22:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91b8…5726 crypto 115 markets active 0h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
Total PnL −$117 (-10%) realized −$196 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%32W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$188
14 days−$188
30 days−$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$106
other 11% −$35
sports 3% −$19
politics 2% −$20
economics 2% −$7
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -9.8% -18.4% 31% 30% -25.5%
≤30d 100 -9.8% -18.4% 31% 30% -25.5%
≤90d 100 -9.8% -18.4% 31% 30% -25.5%
all 110 -11.5% -19.9% 29% 28% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 28% -24.6%
10% -27.6% 25% -31.8%
15% -34.6% 20% -38.4%
20% -41.0% 17% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$196
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses32 / 78
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)110 / 115
History coverage153d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 Action of the Year? Yes 3¢ 21¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+612%)
Will the announcers say "White House" during UFC 250? No 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? No 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$8 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $2 $0 +24%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$2 -25%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 13 $7 −$4 -57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$5 +111%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$3 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $17 −$2 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$11 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$4 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $22 −$3 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $20 −$3 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$14 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $20 −$19 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $27 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$26 +338%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $22 −$16 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $48 −$4 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $2 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $2 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $4 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $4 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $20 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 4h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 4h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $3 4h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $4 8h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 8h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 Action of the Year? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8h
Will the announcers say "White House" during UFC 250? BUY No 1¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $5 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.76 · official $8.76 (match) · 388 history records