Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
91 0x91b8…8e9f other 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 1098d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,377 (-3%) realized −$1,353 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate60%44W / 29L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$544per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$1,726now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$397
7 days+$1,387
14 days+$1,447
30 days+$1,550
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$864
sports 34% −$323
politics 8% +$469
culture 2% +$28
world 1% +$37
tech 0% −$200
economics 0% −$112
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +30.5% +18.1% 72% 56% +0.9%
≤30d 28 +35.8% +22.9% 75% 54% -2.5%
≤90d 29 +32.8% +20.1% 72% 52% -4.6%
all 73 +5.9% -4.2% 60% 27% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 27% -10.9%
10% -13.4% 25% -19.5%
15% -21.8% 25% -27.2%
20% -29.4% 22% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$580) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$185 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1098d coverage
Net worth$1,726
Realized−$1,353
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses44 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions8
Markets (closed)73 / 81
History coverage1098d
Avg bet$544
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 64¢ $500 $489 −$11 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 65¢ 69¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 32¢ 32¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Over 61¢ 60¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 32¢ 30¢ $200 $191 −$9 (-5%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) New Zealand 57¢ 56¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 47¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals Jun 26 $203 +$205 +101%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 25 $203 −$200 -99%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $492 −$485 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $204 +$355 +174%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $203 +$197 +97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4,104 +$96 +2%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $304 +$213 +70%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 24 $102 +$116 +114%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $203 −$200 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $176 −$114 -65%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $997 +$3 +0%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $25 +$36 +143%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $101 +$95 +93%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $101 +$71 +70%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $101 +$50 +50%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $41 +$84 +206%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$48 +48%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $99 +$113 +114%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $0 $0 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $997 +$3 +0%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $580 +$420 +72%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $590 +$410 +70%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,613 +$60 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$24 +238%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5,351 +$79 +2%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 07 $800 −$425 -53%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Feb 08 $195 +$5 +3%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Time 2025 Person of the Year be leaked? Jan 02 $192 +$8 +4%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Jan 02 $190 +$10 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 02 $176 +$24 +14%
Epstein confirmed as foreign agent in 2025? Jan 02 $289 +$10 +4%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Dec 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 3PM ET Dec 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a woman? Dec 11 $781 −$643 -82%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 10 $989 +$11 +1%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 09 $164 −$164 -100%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Dec 04 $577 +$23 +4%
Will Bryan Johnson say "Don’t Die" while tripping balls? Dec 01 $13 $0 +1%
Will Bryan Johnson say "Mushroom" 10+ times while tripping balls? Dec 01 $1,110 +$1 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? Dec 01 $999 +$1 +0%
Kinetiq FDV above $100M one day after launch? Nov 30 $93 +$7 +7%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Nov 29 $112 −$112 -100%
Kinetiq FDV above $50M one day after launch? Nov 29 $1,015 +$5 +0%
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday? Nov 28 $187 +$13 +7%
Will d4vd rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Nov 28 $328 −$328 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 57¢ $152 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $204 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $202 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $204 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $505 1h
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $203 23h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $203 23h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $102 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $492 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,326 42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 100¢ $671 42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $108 43h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY 36¢ $204 43h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 49¢ $102 43h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $203 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 50¢ $203 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 64¢ $202 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 46¢ $102 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 21¢ $45 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $18 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $997 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $176 3d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY 40¢ $25 3d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $101 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $101 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,726.00 · official $1,726.05 (match) · 271 history records