Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:08:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
91 0x91b9…3ab4 sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$45,514 (+25%) realized +$46,264 · open −$750
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%19W / 11L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$5,593per market
Trades / day41.6pace
Fees−$2,399est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$13,310now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$34,626
other 5% +$4,343
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +20.6% +9.1% 63% 63% +12.3%
≤30d 30 +20.6% +9.1% 63% 63% +12.3%
≤90d 30 +20.6% +9.1% 63% 63% +12.3%
all 30 +20.6% +9.1% 63% 63% +12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.1% 63% +12.3%
10% -1.3% 63% +1.6%
15% ← realistic here -10.8% 60% -8.2%
20% -19.6% 50% -17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$8,375) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,477 vs −$4,122 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$13,310
Realized+$46,264
Unrealized−$750
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses19 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$2,399
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage6d
Avg bet$5,593
Trades / day41.6
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 50¢ $10,400 $10,100 −$300 (-3%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 54¢ $3,660 $3,210 −$450 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $19,407 +$10,593 +55%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $9,860 +$10,140 +103%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $17,210 −$17,100 -99%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $3,050 +$1,950 +64%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $3,290 +$3,710 +113%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $4,783 +$1,717 +36%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10,820 +$10,180 +94%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $12,075 +$5,675 +47%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $8,375 −$8,375 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $11,248 −$11,248 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $6,034 +$1,373 +23%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $11,771 +$5,681 +48%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $5,064 +$3,707 +73%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $6,086 −$6,000 -99%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $6,819 +$10,690 +157%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $318 −$311 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $513 −$500 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $513 −$500 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $818 +$2,515 +307%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5,058 +$3,103 +61%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $3,033 +$1,729 +57%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $4,048 +$2,612 +64%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $457 +$949 +208%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $5,060 +$3,293 +65%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $205 −$200 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6,712 +$4,705 +70%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,013 +$741 +73%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1,791 54m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1,869 54m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10,550 2h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 64¢ $19,407 18h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 49¢ $5,631 22h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 49¢ $32 22h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 49¢ $1 22h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 49¢ $96 22h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 49¢ $96 22h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 49¢ $10 22h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 49¢ $29 22h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 49¢ $3,965 22h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $2,021 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $6 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $398 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $66 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $257 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $13 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $13 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $13 28h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $66 28h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 28h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $7 28h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $290 28h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $13 28h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $7 28h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $66 28h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $11 28h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $39 28h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,310.00 · official $13,170.00 · 269 history records