trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 21? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | $15 | $16 | +$1 (+9%) |
| Will Brazil vs. Panama end in a draw? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | $15 | $16 | +$1 (+9%) |
| Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) | Japan | 91¢ | 92¢ | $15 | $15 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil vs. Panama end in a draw? | May 31 | $15 | +$1 | +9% |
| Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 21? | May 21 | $15 | +$1 | +9% |
| Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5) | May 21 | $12 | +$1 | +10% |
| Will Sysco (SYY) beat quarterly earnings? | May 21 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will Carlos Eduardo Palenque win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election? | Mar 20 | $31 | −$2 | -8% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026? | Mar 20 | $1,822 | +$6 | +0% |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Mar 20 | $321 | −$33 | -10% |
| Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? | Mar 20 | $1,820 | +$4 | +0% |
| Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Mar 20 | $304 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? | Mar 20 | $1,748 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? | Mar 20 | $116 | −$5 | -4% |
| Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 202 | Mar 20 | $1,921 | +$2 | +0% |
| Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Mar 20 | $157 | −$35 | -22% |
| Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16 | Mar 20 | $1,780 | +$4 | +0% |
| Will the Republican Party hold fewer than 22 governorships after the 2 | Mar 20 | $1,793 | −$20 | -1% |
| Panthers vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5 | Mar 20 | $36 | +$60 | +170% |
| Lakers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 123.5 | Mar 20 | $180 | +$166 | +92% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | -18.3% | -26.0% | 75% | 0% | -28.1% |
| ≤90d | 17 | +8.5% | -1.8% | 59% | 12% | -8.5% |
| all | 17 | +8.5% | -1.8% | 59% | 12% | -8.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -1.8% | 12% | -8.5% |
| 10% | -11.2% | 12% | -17.3% |
| 15% | -19.8% | 12% | -25.3% |
| 20% | -27.6% | 12% | -32.6% |