Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:17:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91be…233e crypto 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$700 (+6%) realized +$686 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate39%57W / 91L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days−$984
14 days+$826
30 days+$826
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$356
other 1% +$5
world 1% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -30.8% -37.4% 42% 33% -57.1%
≤30d 26 +20.1% +8.6% 35% 31% +12.6%
≤90d 31 +10.6% +0.1% 32% 29% +11.8%
all 148 -14.5% -22.7% 39% 31% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 31% -6.4%
10% -30.1% 24% -15.3%
15% -36.8% 21% -23.5%
20% -43.0% 18% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$45 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$686
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses57 / 91
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage109d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$47 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $313 −$215 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $627 −$591 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $103 −$79 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $104 +$142 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $102 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 07 $110 +$32 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 06 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 06 $210 +$412 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 06 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 06 $209 +$334 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 06 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 06 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 06 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 06 $210 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 06 $213 +$1,897 +892%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 22 $15 −$13 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 22 $15 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 22 $36 +$24 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 22 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 22 $20 −$12 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 16 $13 −$5 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 16 $100 −$93 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 16 $50 −$25 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 16 $20 +$13 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 16 $115 −$22 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 16 $230 −$44 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 16 $30 −$28 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 16 $20 +$11 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 15 $16 −$11 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 15 $20 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 15 $45 −$17 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 15 $120 −$20 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 15 $370 +$84 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 15 $200 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 15 $153 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 15 $50 −$29 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 07 $146 −$56 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 07 $50 −$26 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $99 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $55 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $259 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $37 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $314 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $313 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $24 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $137 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $246 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $115 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $110 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $132 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.89 · official $113.89 (match) · 476 history records