Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:14:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
91 0x91c5…c7bb other 200 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,928 (+6%) realized +$4,293 · open −$365
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate58%104W / 76L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$322per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$5,378now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$134
7 days+$1,025
14 days+$1,231
30 days+$1,071
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$3,529
other 24% −$1,090
finance 13% +$802
sports 5% −$129
tech 2% +$261
politics 1% +$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +29.7% +17.4% 86% 79% +13.9%
≤30d 26 +17.5% +6.3% 77% 62% +2.3%
≤90d 85 +0.2% -9.3% 59% 44% -3.5%
all 180 +8.1% -2.2% 58% 35% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 35% -3.4%
10% -11.6% 20% -12.7%
15% -20.1% 15% -21.1%
20% -28.0% 11% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$76 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$5,378
Realized+$4,293
Unrealized−$365
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses104 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions20
Markets (closed)180 / 200
History coverage169d
Avg bet$322
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 67¢ 97¢ $836 $1,211 +$375 (+45%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 61¢ 100¢ $334 $550 +$216 (+65%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 83¢ 86¢ $498 $513 +$15 (+3%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5) Spirit 63¢ 64¢ $500 $508 +$8 (+2%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Team Falcons 89¢ 100¢ $400 $451 +$51 (+13%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 68¢ 49¢ $523 $379 −$144 (-28%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? No 43¢ 72¢ $212 $357 +$144 (+68%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $308 $310 +$2 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 36¢ 50¢ $203 $277 +$74 (+36%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? No 87¢ 66¢ $261 $200 −$62 (-24%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 24¢ 18¢ $219 $162 −$57 (-26%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 29¢ 25¢ $165 $142 −$23 (-14%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 96¢ $86 $96 +$10 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $74 $79 +$5 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 49¢ $413 $63 −$350 (-85%)
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 55¢ 69¢ $23 $29 +$6 (+26%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 14¢ 12¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-15%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 47¢ $188 $12 −$176 (-94%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 61¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+64%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 40¢ $80 $9 −$71 (-89%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ $21 $8 −$13 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $221 +$170 +77%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 20 $340 +$226 +66%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $1,169 −$416 -36%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $11 +$4 +40%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $150 +$26 +17%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 19 $20 +$14 +67%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 19 $121 +$23 +19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 19 $134 +$22 +16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 19 $530 +$64 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 18 $120 +$80 +67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $207 +$93 +45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $622 +$752 +121%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $276 +$12 +4%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $536 +$185 +35%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 12 $65 +$3 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $401 +$5 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 11 $148 +$26 +18%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 04 $139 +$81 +58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $218 +$22 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 04 $920 −$111 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 04 $378 +$197 +52%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 22 $1,071 −$366 -34%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $167 −$22 -13%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $199 +$38 +19%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 16 $54 +$3 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,221 −$986 -81%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 16 $255 +$39 +15%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on May 16 $201 −$89 -44%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 16 $73 −$6 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 14 $785 +$7 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 14 $287 +$13 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 11 $189 −$107 -56%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 11 $400 −$61 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 11 $17 −$10 -59%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 11 $1,301 +$1,284 +99%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 10 $117 +$294 +251%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 09 $256 −$144 -56%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 08 $381 −$19 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 08 $85 +$10 +12%
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? May 08 $374 −$55 -15%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? May 02 $124 −$2 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 02 $681 −$60 -9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? May 02 $55 −$1 -1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $1,046 +$327 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,106 +$196 +18%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 29 $46 −$4 -8%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Apr 26 $37 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 55¢ $23 57m
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5) BUY Spirit 63¢ $506 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 91¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 91¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 91¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 91¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 91¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 91¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 91¢ $363 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 91¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 91¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $46 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $49 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 74¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 74¢ $49 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 73¢ $70 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 89¢ $401 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality $13 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 15¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 85¢ $12 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 13¢ $13 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 88¢ $35 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 46¢ $51 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 54¢ $88 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 54¢ $15 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 54¢ $0 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 54¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,377.72 · official $5,377.73 (match) · 1363 history records