Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:21:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
91 0x91c6…eb38 world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$2
other 25% +$2
politics 8% +$2
finance 4% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.1% 17% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 17 +0.3% -9.2% 29% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 17 +0.3% -9.2% 29% 0% -9.2%
all 40 +3.5% -6.3% 48% 5% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 5% -8.7%
10% -15.3% 2% -17.4%
15% -23.5% 2% -25.4%
20% -31.0% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.63 per $1 lost it wins $3.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage461d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $29 +$2 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $29 −$1 -3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $36 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $58 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $29 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $2 +$2 +104%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 24 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 06 $2 $0 +10%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 05 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? May 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 22 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Okarun win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for 2025? May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will San Marino finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $11 +$1 +9%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 16 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 13 $3 $0 -9%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 Masters? Apr 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Apr 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 29 $12 −$1 -4%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? Mar 22 $12 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $26 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $12 33h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $19 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $30 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $11 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $17 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 89¢ $28 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $29 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $15 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $15 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 67¢ $24 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 67¢ $5 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $6 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $23 7d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $9 7d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $20 7d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $29 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $4 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $25 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $29 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $17 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.88 · official $3.88 (match) · 116 history records