Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91c6…8ff6 world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate56%20W / 16L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$3
other 29% $0
crypto 8% +$4
politics 6% $0
economics 2% −$1
sports 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.3% -8.4% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 12 +1.1% -8.6% 42% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 12 +1.1% -8.6% 42% 0% -9.0%
all 36 +1.6% -8.1% 56% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 3% -8.9%
10% -16.9% 3% -17.6%
15% -24.9% 3% -25.5%
20% -32.3% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses20 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage466d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $8 +$1 +7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $45 +$1 +2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $36 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $49 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $80 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $65 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 02 $18 $0 -2%
Will "Smurfs" Rotten Tomatoes score be 70 or higher? Jul 01 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -68%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 17 $4 $0 -7%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 13 $2 $0 +7%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? Apr 06 $21 $0 +1%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 03 $21 $0 -0%
US military action against Iran before April? Apr 03 $21 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $20 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $20 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will another racer win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 21 $20 $0 -1%
Will Texas Tech win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting? Mar 21 $13 $0 +2%
Will Purple Tribe be the Crypto the Game Season 3 winner? Mar 19 $3 +$3 +98%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $45 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $45 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $9 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $37 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $45 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $28 22h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $9 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $8 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $3 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $8 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $16 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $30 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $7 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $36 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $14 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $33 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $49 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $24 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $38 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $36 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 97¢ $43 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $44 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 77¢ $16 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $17 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records