Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:30:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
91 0x91c7…b576 world 309 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 151d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,905 (-3%) realized −$3,274 · open +$369
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate72%177W / 69L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$364per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$15,657now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 152d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$5,279
other 9% +$287
politics 9% +$732
finance 5% +$354
crypto 2% +$277
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.7% -10.2% 71% 58% -2.0%
≤30d 64 +6.0% -4.1% 73% 44% -7.1%
≤90d 178 +7.4% -2.8% 71% 35% -9.7%
all 246 +14.0% +3.2% 72% 33% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.2% 33% -2.7%
10% ← realistic here -6.7% 17% -12.0%
15% -15.7% 11% -20.5%
20% -24.0% 9% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$175 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$15,657
Realized−$3,274
Unrealized+$369
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses177 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions67
Markets (closed)246 / 309
History coverage152d ⚠
Avg bet$364
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 67 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 80¢ 90¢ $3,178 $3,572 +$395 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $3,122 $3,213 +$91 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 67¢ 48¢ $1,463 $1,035 −$428 (-29%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $645 $674 +$29 (+4%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 67¢ 52¢ $666 $519 −$147 (-22%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 67¢ 84¢ $364 $456 +$92 (+25%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 77¢ 80¢ $438 $455 +$16 (+4%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 69¢ 84¢ $344 $423 +$79 (+23%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $373 $382 +$9 (+3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $366 $372 +$6 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 88¢ $194 $274 +$80 (+41%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 80¢ 81¢ $269 $273 +$4 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 79¢ 80¢ $264 $270 +$5 (+2%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 85¢ 99¢ $214 $250 +$35 (+16%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 84¢ $182 $211 +$29 (+16%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $205 $203 −$2 (-1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 96¢ 96¢ $201 $201 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in June? No 95¢ 98¢ $190 $196 +$6 (+3%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $176 $193 +$17 (+10%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 79¢ 84¢ $155 $166 +$11 (+7%)
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $161 $166 +$5 (+3%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 65¢ 62¢ $169 $161 −$8 (-5%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 90¢ 94¢ $151 $156 +$5 (+4%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $144 $147 +$3 (+2%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 72¢ 72¢ $145 $144 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 21 $129 +$18 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 19 $97 +$23 +24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 18 $15 +$5 +33%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $164 +$5 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 18 $74 +$15 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 18 $9 −$5 -55%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $66 −$54 -81%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 17 $120 −$97 -81%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $94 −$74 -79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $165 +$45 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 17 $117 +$53 +46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $349 +$98 +28%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 17 $11 +$3 +25%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$10 +47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $635 +$111 +18%
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 16 $94 +$5 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $108 −$70 -65%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 15 $881 +$111 +13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $52 +$12 +23%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $1,986 +$276 +14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $102 +$22 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $373 −$36 -10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $94 +$6 +6%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 14 $65 +$207 +317%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $45 +$5 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $441 −$20 -4%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 13 $154 −$136 -88%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $1,321 −$593 -45%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $55 +$5 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $57 +$5 +9%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 02 $24 +$16 +66%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 01 $8 +$5 +68%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $262 −$43 -16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Discombobulator" or "Discombobulated" in May? Jun 01 $164 +$25 +15%
Will Trump say "Skedaddle" in May? Jun 01 $35 +$5 +13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $131 +$9 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $388 −$26 -7%
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in May? Jun 01 $85 +$6 +7%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $335 +$22 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 31 $584 +$60 +10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 30 $1,003 +$84 +8%
Will Trump say "Braggadocious" in May? May 29 $11 +$5 +43%
Internet Access restored in Iran by December 31, 2026? May 28 $18 +$3 +15%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $406 +$73 +18%
Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026? May 28 $323 +$63 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $146 1h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $73 1h
Netanyahu out by July 31? BUY No 97¢ $107 1h
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? BUY Yes 79¢ $79 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 96¢ $96 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $147 16h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $193 17h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $387 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $56 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $40 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 39h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $90 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $41 2d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $110 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $81 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $42 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $22 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 87¢ $87 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $36 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $31 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $127 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $99 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 3d
Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 Fr BUY Yes 73¢ $4 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL No 13¢ $12 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 15¢ $23 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,656.85 · official $15,656.89 (match) · 3500 history records