Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91cb…637b other 669 markets active 0h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$331 (-14%) realized −$390 · open +$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%235W / 401L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$340now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$247
7 days−$312
14 days−$302
30 days−$316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$151
other 41% −$96
crypto 3% −$37
world 1% −$4
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% +$1
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -51.3% -55.9% 17% 17% -51.8%
≤30d 176 -30.5% -37.1% 21% 21% -42.2%
≤90d 562 -15.6% -23.6% 33% 32% -29.3%
all 636 -9.2% -17.8% 37% 36% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 36% -24.3%
10% -25.7% 36% -31.6%
15% -32.9% 35% -38.2%
20% -39.5% 34% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$340
Realized−$390
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses235 / 401
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions31
Markets (closed)636 / 669
History coverage145d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 636 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 46¢ 88¢ $53 $102 +$48 (+90%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 32¢ 30¢ $42 $40 −$2 (-5%)
Ghana leading at halftime? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-2%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 9¢ 38¢ $4 $17 +$13 (+328%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+82%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 46¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 35¢ 54¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+53%)
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $11 +$23 +199%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$7 +44%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 +$20 +186%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$7 +48%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 +$46 +1116%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $16 +$24 +143%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +25%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 23m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 35m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 35¢ $2 35m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $37 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 28¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $24 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $339.80 · official $346.77 · 1554 history records