Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:46:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
91 0x91cc…f388 sports 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$368 (+19%) realized +$478 · open −$110
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 50% +10.4%
≤30d 8 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 50% +10.4%
≤90d 8 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 50% +10.4%
all 8 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 50% +10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 50% +10.4%
10% -26.1% 38% -0.1%
15% -33.2% 38% -9.8%
20% -39.7% 38% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$194 vs −$110 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized+$478
Unrealized−$110
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier Group A ex-MANA eSports 56¢ 61¢ $200 $220 +$20 (+10%)
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Alpha Dominion Nation - Map 2 Winner Alpha Dominion Nation 35¢ 0¢ $130 $0 −$130 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $95 −$73 -77%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $305 +$306 +100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $246 +$297 +121%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $300 +$44 +15%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $327 −$324 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 27 $199 +$129 +65%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $94 −$39 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France (BO3) - European P BUY ex-MANA eSports 56¢ $203 22m
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Alpha Dominion Nation - Map 2 Winne BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 35¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Alpha Dominion Nation - Map 2 Winne BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 35¢ $102 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 84¢ $18 17h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $610 17h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 30¢ $77 17h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 49¢ $305 19h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $542 20h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 57¢ $30 20h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 60¢ $71 20h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 33¢ $10 20h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 40¢ $2 20h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 38¢ $132 20h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $344 21h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 87¢ $300 21h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 73¢ $24 22h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $303 23h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $199 42h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $75 43h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 72¢ $54 44h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 27¢ $40 45h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 11¢ $5 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.93 · official $221.73 (match) · 25 history records