Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:46:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91ce…16ec other 48 markets active 15h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12,785 (-3%) realized −$12,681 · open −$104
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate47%22W / 25L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,774per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$812est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$9,464now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86,863
7 days+$86,863
14 days+$86,863
30 days+$86,863
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$47,163
politics 18% −$13,872
world 13% −$5,695
sports 11% +$86,863
tech 10% −$19,258
culture 5% −$1,858
crypto 5% −$6,965
economics 2% −$5,333
finance 0% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +216.5% +186.3% 100% 100% +186.3%
≤30d 2 +216.5% +186.3% 100% 100% +186.3%
≤90d 2 +216.5% +186.3% 100% 100% +186.3%
all 47 -13.0% -21.3% 47% 30% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.3% 30% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 26% -21.2%
15% -35.7% 21% -28.8%
20% -42.0% 13% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +216% too few recent
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$8,532) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,210 vs −$5,116 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$9,464
Realized−$12,681
Unrealized−$104
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses22 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$812
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage255d
Avg bet$7,774
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $9,568 $9,464 −$104 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20,023 +$49,977 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20,113 +$36,887 +183%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $52,359 −$52,359 -100%
Park Sung-jae in jail by October 31? Nov 01 $35,242 +$16,286 +46%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Nov 01 $8,532 −$6,758 -79%
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo? Oct 23 $16,003 −$16,003 -100%
Will Hakeem Jeffries endorse Mamdani? Oct 23 $7,586 −$7,488 -99%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? Oct 22 $111 +$29 +26%
OpenAI browser by October 31? Oct 22 $21,801 −$11,529 -53%
Will Microsoft be the second most valuable company on October 31? Oct 21 $3,692 −$3,678 -100%
Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by December 31? Oct 20 $862 +$255 +30%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 20 $7,274 −$5,333 -73%
Will Trump say "Rose Garden" during ballroom dinner on October 15? Oct 16 $68 +$92 +135%
Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during ballroom dinner on October 15? Oct 16 $196 +$114 +58%
North Korea missile launch by October 15? Oct 16 $14,121 +$56 +0%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during ballroom dinner on October 15? Oct 16 $296 −$296 -100%
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? Oct 15 $5,964 +$568 +10%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 15 $44,000 +$59 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? Oct 15 $4,633 +$425 +9%
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 15? Oct 15 $7,626 −$693 -9%
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Bank of America (BAC) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history? Oct 15 $2,576 −$2,576 -100%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 15 $783 −$36 -5%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31? Oct 14 $4,811 −$4,811 -100%
Taylor Swift holds top ten spots on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week Oct 14 $2,725 −$2,725 -100%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31? Oct 14 $1,168 −$1,168 -100%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15? Oct 14 $4,262 −$4,262 -100%
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17? Oct 14 $19,660 +$734 +4%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 14 $13,006 +$2,085 +16%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 13 $5,608 −$2,311 -41%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in 2025? Oct 13 $1,900 −$1,900 -100%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 13 $2 $0 +7%
Discord IPO in 2025? Oct 13 $340 −$6 -2%
Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parli Oct 12 $99 −$34 -34%
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Ne Oct 12 $128 −$69 -54%
Will the EU impose new tariffs on US goods in 2025? Oct 11 $1,760 −$80 -5%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $17,591 +$868 +5%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Oct 09 $2,033 +$767 +38%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? Oct 09 $1,908 +$2,985 +156%
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31? Oct 07 $66 +$4 +6%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15? Oct 07 $3,657 +$1,378 +38%
Will Taylor Swift say "Travis" or "Kelce" 3+ times during Tonight Show Oct 07 $104 +$176 +170%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 07 $365 −$365 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Oct 07 $211 +$83 +39%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? Oct 07 $4,614 +$799 +17%
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Octobe Oct 07 $3,321 −$3,321 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3,047 15h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $16,977 15h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $9,842 15h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $2,578 15h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $8,852 15h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 15h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $8,548 15h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $134 15h
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? BUY Yes 45¢ $4,010 226d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? BUY Yes 45¢ $632 226d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? BUY Yes 45¢ $32 226d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? BUY Yes 45¢ $633 226d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? BUY Yes 45¢ $351 226d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? BUY Yes 45¢ $76 226d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? BUY Yes 45¢ $1,189 226d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? BUY Yes 45¢ $61 226d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? BUY Yes 45¢ $1,549 226d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? BUY Yes 45¢ $43,766 226d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? BUY Yes 45¢ $61 226d
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands SELL Yes 0¢ $45 227d
Will Hakeem Jeffries endorse Mamdani? BUY No 16¢ $340 235d
Will Hakeem Jeffries endorse Mamdani? BUY No 16¢ $5 235d
Will Hakeem Jeffries endorse Mamdani? BUY No 16¢ $11 235d
Will Hakeem Jeffries endorse Mamdani? BUY No 16¢ $2 235d
Will Hakeem Jeffries endorse Mamdani? BUY No 16¢ $32 235d
Will Hakeem Jeffries endorse Mamdani? BUY No 16¢ $160 235d
Will Hakeem Jeffries endorse Mamdani? BUY No 16¢ $2 235d
Will Hakeem Jeffries endorse Mamdani? BUY No 16¢ $9 235d
Will Hakeem Jeffries endorse Mamdani? BUY No 27¢ $756 236d
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands SELL Yes 85¢ $129 236d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,464.00 · official $9,464.00 (match) · 692 history records