Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:17:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91d0…fb45 crypto 102 markets active 2d ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$453 (-12%) realized −$453 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate42%43W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$127
7 days−$180
14 days−$180
30 days−$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$544
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-36.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -20.7% -28.3% 50% 37% -16.8%
≤30d 38 -20.7% -28.3% 50% 37% -16.8%
≤90d 102 -29.7% -36.4% 42% 29% -23.9%
all 102 -29.7% -36.4% 42% 29% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.4% 29% -23.9%
10% -42.5% 18% -31.1%
15% -48.0% 15% -37.8%
20% -53.1% 11% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$18 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$453
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses43 / 59
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage73d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $62 −$23 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $228 +$27 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $63 +$32 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$23 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$21 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$18 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$60 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $128 +$21 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $110 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $153 −$12 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $113 −$100 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $205 −$10 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $129 +$50 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $128 +$67 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 20 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 20 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 20 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 20 $27 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 20 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 20 $15 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 20 $21 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 20 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 20 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 20 $35 −$3 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $12 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $28 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $115 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $29 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $111 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $73 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $12 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $49 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $6 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $3 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 308 history records