Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91d5…8a03 sports 1207 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,358 (-9%) realized −$1,477 · open +$119
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%556W / 792L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day28.5pace
Fees−$127est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$819now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$304
7 days−$1,170
14 days−$1,170
30 days−$2,505
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$608
crypto 23% −$351
world 4% −$239
other 2% +$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 214 -73.3% -75.9% 16% 14% -24.9%
≤30d 830 -41.3% -46.9% 30% 26% -29.4%
≤90d 1235 -15.8% -23.9% 41% 37% -19.0%
all 1348 -15.3% -23.3% 41% 38% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.3% 38% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -30.7% 34% -26.7%
15% -37.4% 30% -33.8%
20% -43.5% 26% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$819
Realized−$1,477
Unrealized+$119
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses556 / 792
Est. fees paid−$127
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1348 / 1207
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day28.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1348 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Group A Vasco Esports 22¢ 48¢ $100 $220 +$120 (+120%)
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season ONSIDE GAMING 70¢ 100¢ $100 $143 +$43 (+43%)
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Walczaki 77¢ 100¢ $100 $130 +$30 (+30%)
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson Qinwen Zheng 55¢ 70¢ $100 $128 +$28 (+28%)
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A AM Gaming 38¢ 40¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Borna Gojo vs Colton Smith Colton Smith 48¢ 44¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group C Alpha Gaming 56¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 493 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Thunder vs. 76ers: O/U 225.5 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs French Flair - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Devils vs. Stars Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
ELH: Sparta Prague vs. Plzen Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Miami Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Dubrovnik: Lola Radivojevic vs Alina Charaeva Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Split: Ergi Kirkin vs Sandro Kopp Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Aguilar vs. Houkes: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Blue Jackets (-1.5) Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bucaramanga: Samuel Linde vs Christopher Li Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Beijing Royal Fighters vs. Zhejiang Golden Bulls Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Sarah Rakotomanga vs. Sara Sorribes Tormo: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Pelicans vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 118.5 Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Naples: Hamad Medjedovic vs Hynek Barton Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Atmane vs Tiafoe Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Dubrovnik: Anhelina Kalinina vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Sao Paulo: Juan Carlos Prado vs Daniel Dutra da Silva Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AD Pasto win on 2026-03-24? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Águilas Doradas Rionegro win on 2026-03-23? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Andreeva vs Mboko Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Miami Open: Terence Atmane vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Tommy Paul Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Kraken vs. Panthers: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Boyacá Chicó FC win on 2026-03-23? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Hawks: O/U 240.5 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Shanxi Loongs vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Dubrovnik: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Set Handicap: Mboko (-1.5) vs Andreeva (+1.5) Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Sao Paulo: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Luis Guto Miguel Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Heat: 1H O/U 122.5 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Alicante: Dali Blanch vs Justin Engel Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Sao Paulo: Gustavo Heide vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Maristany vs Erjavec Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Morelia: James Duckworth vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Thunder vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 110.5 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Louisville Cardinals (W) Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Sao Paulo: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Hugo Dellien Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Lakers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 116.5 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Miami Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Victoria Mboko Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
NL: Ajoie vs. Ambri-Piotta Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-03-24? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-03-23? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bucaramanga: Cannon Kingsley vs Adria Soriano Barrera Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Split: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Daniel Michalski Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 22¢ $102 22m
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY AM Gaming 38¢ $102 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Borna Gojo vs Colton Smith BUY Colton Smith 48¢ $102 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson BUY Qinwen Zheng 55¢ $101 2h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr BUY Walczaki 77¢ $101 4h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY ONSIDE GAMING 70¢ $101 5h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MOUZ 69¢ $101 5h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 BUY Alpha Gaming 56¢ $101 5h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 73¢ $101 6h
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY Atrix Esports 26¢ $102 14h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY MIBR Academy 78¢ $101 16h
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular BUY KRÜ Blaze 8¢ $103 18h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 51¢ $101 19h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 55¢ $101 19h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $101 20h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 61¢ $101 21h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 69¢ $101 21h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Ugo Humbert 63¢ $101 22h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Eternal Fire 42¢ $102 22h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 61¢ $101 22h
Valorant: Joblife vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group B BUY Joblife 58¢ $101 22h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 49¢ $102 22h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 51¢ $101 22h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Team Spirit 88¢ $100 23h
Targu Mures: Radu Albot vs Duje Ajdukovic BUY Radu Albot 48¢ $102 24h
Mallorca Championships: Marc Polmans vs Grigor Dimitrov BUY Grigor Dimitrov 83¢ $101 26h
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli BUY Cash/Glasspool 78¢ $101 26h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 33¢ $102 27h
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ann Li 43¢ $102 27h
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Jurak/Ruzic vs Errani/Paolini BUY Errani/Paolini 83¢ $101 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $818.59 · official $822.42 (match) · 3500 history records