Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:00:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91db…bc40 world 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%30W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$9
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$4
other 21% +$2
politics 15% $0
sports 6% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 0% −$8
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 43% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 30 -1.8% -11.2% 47% 7% -9.7%
≤90d 70 -1.0% -10.4% 37% 3% -9.6%
all 76 -3.2% -12.4% 39% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 4% -9.9%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses30 / 46
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)76 / 79
History coverage524d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 84¢ 84¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 22 $8 $0 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $30 +$1 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $18 +$1 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $32 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -47%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $30 +$3 +12%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $29 +$4 +13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $16 +$1 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $25 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $25 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $53 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $75 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $25 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $124 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $47 −$3 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $126 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $41 −$3 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $61 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $34 −$5 -14%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $36 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $35 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $35 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $36 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $3 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $29 $0 -1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $11 $0 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $32 $0 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $45 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 21 $12 $0 -3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $64 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $63 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $31 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 22h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $31 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $30 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $24 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $7 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $30 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $20 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $18 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $6 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $31 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $32 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $5 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $3 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $2 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $35 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $35 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $25 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $8 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $33 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.20 · official $31.08 · 284 history records