Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:08:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
91 0x91df…b2dc weather 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$52 (+4%) realized +$53 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate31%13W / 29L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$7
14 days+$23
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$4
weather 7% +$23
sports 6% +$13
crypto 5% +$16
other 5% −$4
world 3% −$2
tech 2% +$1
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +25.2% +13.3% 40% 40% +8.3%
≤30d 13 +59.7% +44.5% 54% 54% +21.3%
≤90d 15 +66.3% +50.4% 60% 60% +31.9%
all 42 +20.4% +8.9% 31% 26% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.9% 26% -6.5%
10% -1.5% 26% -15.5%
15% -11.0% 26% -23.6%
20% -19.8% 24% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$3 · ×3.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$53
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses13 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage464d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26? No 69¢ 66¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 22? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 23? Jun 24 $6 +$14 +233%
Will Wyndham Clark finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 18? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 20 $8 +$16 +193%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $10 +$14 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $11 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$10 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 10? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 30? Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 26? May 29 $3 +$13 +425%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26? May 29 $10 +$15 +144%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 22? May 25 $2 +$3 +122%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? May 22 $21 +$20 +95%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 05 $248 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 05 $507 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 05 $259 $0 -0%
Jets vs. Flames Nov 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Penguins vs. Predators Nov 15 $26 +$28 +108%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Nov 14 $2 +$5 +233%
Timberwolves vs. Kings Nov 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Wild vs. Islanders Nov 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Wild vs. Hurricanes Nov 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Oct 08 $13 −$1 -11%
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? Oct 07 $2 $0 -9%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31? Oct 06 $18 $0 +2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Oct 04 $17 −$3 -14%
US government shutdown by October 1? Sep 29 $18 −$2 -10%
Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? Sep 26 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 September 22-28? Sep 23 $23 −$3 -12%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Sep 19 $25 +$1 +5%
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford Sep 13 $1 $0 -3%
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva Sep 13 $8 $0 -3%
Will Germany win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? Sep 08 $5 $0 -4%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open? Sep 05 $21 $0 -2%
Will Anthony Albanese be the next Prime Minister of Australia after th Mar 27 $12 −$1 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Mar 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Manchester City win the 2024-25 FA Cup? Mar 25 $4 $0 -6%
Will 7-8 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon' Mar 21 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Houston win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 19 $8 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 69¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 23? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 4d
Will Wyndham Clark finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 26¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 35¢ $14 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $8 8d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 42¢ $10 10d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 68¢ $11 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Down 47¢ $13 13d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 14d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 10? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 15d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 30d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 31d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 22? BUY No 44¢ $2 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? BUY No 50¢ $21 35d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $248 171d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $248 171d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $259 171d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $259 171d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $248 171d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $248 171d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $259 171d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $259 171d
Jets vs. Flames BUY Flames 44¢ $12 222d
Penguins vs. Predators BUY Predators 48¢ $26 223d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Raptors 30¢ $2 224d
Timberwolves vs. Kings BUY Kings 34¢ $6 227d
Wild vs. Islanders BUY Islanders 59¢ $12 230d
Wild vs. Hurricanes BUY Wild 36¢ $4 231d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.56 · official $24.56 (match) · 88 history records