Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:55:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91e0…26a0 sports 924 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,832 (+8%) realized +$4,832 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%385W / 536L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day50.9pace
Fees−$940est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,172
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
other 0% +$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -45.3% -50.5% 20% 20% -62.5%
≤30d 400 -0.2% -9.7% 44% 41% -7.5%
≤90d 921 -2.2% -11.5% 42% 40% -7.6%
all 921 -2.2% -11.5% 42% 40% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 40% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 38% -16.4%
15% -27.7% 35% -24.5%
20% -34.8% 28% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$39 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$4,832
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses385 / 536
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$940
Open positions3
Markets (closed)921 / 924
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$64
Trades / day50.9
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 921 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Gavin Young Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $82 −$82 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $30 +$12 +41%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski Jun 21 $28 +$57 +200%
ITF Dinard: Marie Vogt vs Antonia Stoyanov Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Anastasia Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Berta Passola Jun 21 $30 +$37 +124%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $59 −$59 -100%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $56 +$90 +160%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $88 −$88 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Felix Gill vs Marco Trungelliti Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu Jun 20 $57 −$57 -100%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Jun 20 $79 −$79 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Lanlana Tararudee vs Veronika Er Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus Jun 20 $58 −$9 -15%
ITF Mohammedia: Luna Vujovic vs Daria Egorova Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
ITF Monastir: Victoria Milovanova vs Lucie Pawlak Jun 20 $84 −$84 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $60 +$54 +89%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Antoine Ghibaudo vs Petr Bar Bi Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $352 −$156 -44%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $3 +$2 +52%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $116 −$73 -63%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $22 +$32 +142%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $108 −$108 -100%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $84 −$17 -20%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $114 −$9 -8%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $348 −$348 -100%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $6 +$10 +156%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
ITF Blois: Francesca Curmi vs Ipek Oz Jun 19 $151 −$151 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY New York Liberty 39¢ $22 2d
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY New York Liberty 39¢ $4 2d
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY New York Liberty 39¢ $4 2d
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Gavin Young BUY Gavin Young 2¢ $4 2d
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Gavin Young BUY Gavin Young 2¢ $2 2d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 31¢ $27 2d
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego SELL Lorenzo Sonego 99¢ $43 2d
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 70¢ $30 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 99¢ $10 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 99¢ $38 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 99¢ $38 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 33¢ $1 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 33¢ $1 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 33¢ $1 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 33¢ $3 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 33¢ $3 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 33¢ $1 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 33¢ $1 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 33¢ $3 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 33¢ $4 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 33¢ $13 2d
ITF Dinard: Marie Vogt vs Antonia Stoyanov BUY Marie Vogt 1¢ $0 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 31¢ $27 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Anastasia BUY Oksana Selekhmeteva 2¢ $6 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 14¢ $28 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 32¢ $28 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk BUY Hamish Stewart 54¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.94 · official $109.94 (match) · 3500 history records