Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:40:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91e1…5aec crypto 165 markets active 4d ago coverage 742d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,329 (-21%) realized −$1,329 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate35%57W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$43
14 days−$43
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$779
crypto 28% −$540
politics 3% +$123
sports 3% −$120
finance 2% +$4
world 2% −$35
economics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -34.5% -40.7% 27% 23% -35.0%
≤30d 70 -39.2% -45.0% 26% 23% -38.8%
≤90d 92 -49.6% -54.4% 21% 18% -65.9%
all 165 -28.2% -35.0% 35% 22% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.0% 22% -29.3%
10% -41.2% 20% -36.1%
15% -46.9% 17% -42.3%
20% -52.1% 13% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$21 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

742d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,329
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses57 / 108
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)165 / 165
History coverage742d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 165 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$23 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $25 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 29 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 29 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 29 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 29 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 29 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 29 $2 +$4 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 29 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 29 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 29 $13 +$8 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 29 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 29 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 29 $4 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 29 $7 +$5 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 29 $11 +$10 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 29 $6 −$1 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 796 history records