Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91e2…a80b other 58 markets active 1d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-23%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%8W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$36
sports 23% +$20
world 5% −$2
crypto 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -32.4% -38.9% 14% 14% -31.9%
≤30d 58 -32.4% -38.9% 14% 14% -31.9%
≤90d 58 -32.4% -38.9% 14% 14% -31.9%
all 58 -32.4% -38.9% 14% 14% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.9% 14% -31.9%
10% -44.7% 10% -38.4%
15% -50.1% 10% -44.4%
20% -55.0% 9% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses8 / 50
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage5d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (48 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$7 +242%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
New Zealand to win the second half? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 +$7 +711%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Nico Williams: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Rodri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Pedri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Rodri: 1+ assists Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Nico Williams: 1+ assists Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -41%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 $0 -48%
Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assists Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Felix Nmecha: 1+ assists Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Leroy Sané: 1+ assists Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ assists Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Nestory Irankunda: 1+ assists Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$18 +1745%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Raphinha: 1+ assists Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ assists Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ assists Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ assists Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Breel Embolo: 1+ assists Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Antonio Sanabria: 1+ goals Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 12 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 24h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 25h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 44h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 44h
IR Iran leading at halftime? SELL Yes $2 45h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes $1 46h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 46h
New Zealand to win the second half? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 46h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 46h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 47h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 47h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 47h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 47h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 47h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 47h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 2d
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $1 2d
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $1 2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 39¢ $1 2d
Nico Williams: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $1 2d
Rodri: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Pedri: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records